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Worst Pickz Cheat Sheet

Week 4 — Anytime Touchdown

Every listed play by game, tagged by role and matchup. Tap a filter to narrow the board, or a name to open his player card.

Tags: ⭐ favorite — the week's best touchdown odds among healthy players with a real sample; 💎 underrated — a secondary role scoring well above what his slot usually does this week, or a growing role into a defense that leaks; 🔥 red-zone target — a back with 30%+ of his team's work inside the 20 or a goal-line carry a game, a pass catcher with 18%+, a quarterback with half a carry a game inside the 5; 🦴 defensive matchup — this defense has given up 10%+ more than league to his role, in production and touchdowns combined, and is not a red-zone wall; ✈️ exploitable D — the defense this team faces carries a TARGET verdict in the team-defense scoring table.
Team tendency is shown only where it helps that player, and is computed from the last 17 games: 🏃🏿‍♂️‍➡️ run-first (a bottom-ten pass rate with the score close) lifts the backfield, 🩵 pass-first (top ten) lifts the pass catchers, and 💢 aggressive (a top-ten rate of going for it on 4th-and-short) lifts everyone.
Numbers: TD is the chance of at least one touchdown from the Game Board — his share of his team's red-zone work × how often his team gets there × how often this defense lets a trip score, plus the scores he gets from outside the 20 (quarterbacks: rushing touchdowns only). RZ is that red-zone share, GL his carries inside the 5 per game, and D#n the opponent's rank of 32 in red-zone touchdown rate allowed — green at 24+ is soft, red at 8 or better is a wall. Every number covers each player's and each defense's last 17 games, so it reaches back into last season while this one is young.
Top 5 ranks healthy favorites on that TD chance, nudged by this week's implied points and by the touchdowns this defense has allowed to his role.
1st TD is the chance he scores the game's first touchdown: his team's chance to score first — its implied points turned into expected touchdowns, nudged by how often it scores on its first two drives against how often this defense allows that, with defensive and special-teams scores counted too — times his share of his team's expected touchdowns. Top 5 first TD ranks healthy players on it. Top 5 2+ TD ranks healthy players on their chance of two or more touchdowns, from the same expected-touchdown number behind their TD % (one minus the chance of none and of exactly one); each card also counts how often he actually scored 2+ over his last 17 games. Fair is that chance as American odds with no bookmaker margin: a book price longer than fair is the value side.
Caveats: New team means most of his sample was earned with another club, so his share describes a role he may not hold now. A small sample player has fewer than four games and is listed without a rating. Injury statuses come from ESPN's report when the sheet was built — check again before kickoff.