Worst Pickz Cheat Daily MLB Sheet
Worst Pickz Cheat Daily MLB Sheet
Wednesday, October 7, 2026 — Worst Pickz HR cheat sheet with listed home run odds where available, confirmed/projected lineups, PropFinder batter data, pitcher weak spots, and Ballpark Pal rows via PropFinder Weather. This board covers 27 listed HR props across 4 games, with 8 Worst Pickz Favorite rows (⭐) and 4 Worst Pickz Hidden Gemz (💎). Designated Worst Pickz Favorites get the rose border; designated Hidden Gemz get the blue border and 💎 in the emoji row; the top-right Save box adds props to your local bet tracker.
Worst Picks HR Rating Model
Power Profile - 30 ptsBarrels, pull-air, launch shape, and one-swing damage.
Batter vs Pitcher Hand Edge - 10 ptsPlatoon lane and pitch-mix fit versus opposing starter.
Pitcher HR Weakness + Fly-Ball Risk - 20 ptsHR/9 leakage, hard contact, and hittable zones.
Pitcher Weak Spots - 5 ptsOrder-slot weakness and split exposure.
Park + Weather - 10 ptsHR row, wind, temperature, and roof impact.
Recent Form + Price - 15 ptsCurrent quality and value versus listed odds.
Score Bands
90-100 Elite HR TargetHigh-end profile plus clean matchup lane.
80-89 Strong TargetLive HR setup with manageable drag.
70-79 PlayableUsable lane, mostly price-sensitive.
69 and Lower Thin / FadeMostly longshot-only exposure.
Worst Pickz Straights of the Day
Over 0.5 HR Straight
William Contreras — vs Buehler
- Primary edgefavorable split +0.27 vs Buehler, attackable HR risk +0.61
- Why this pick1 HR, 1 near-HR · 98.2 mph EV · split +0.27 · risk +0.61 · park -5% · zone 19.9 · best O0.5 straight lane (zone fit + form + split + park)
Over 1.5 HR Straight
Ben Rice — vs Martinez
- Primary edgefavorable split +0.20 vs Martinez, park/weather +9%, elite zone fit 34.6, zone HR rate 34.4%
- Why this pick2 HR, 2 near-HR · 96.1 mph EV · split +0.20 · risk -0.18 · park +9% · zone 34.6 · 2 HR / 2 near-HR multi-HR profile
Goblin's Insight
3 Leg Homerun Bet
- Cody Bellinger HR1 HR, 1 near-HR, 93.6 mph EV. Martinez LHB split +0.20, HR risk -0.18. pitcher risk below avg (-0.18). Air: FB 38%, pull-air 38%. · zone 22.1 · zone HR 26.0%
- Ozzie Albies HRWorst Pickz Hidden Gem. 1 HR, 3 near-HR, 92.8 mph EV, 37.5% barrels. Glasnow SHB→LHB split +0.88, HR risk -0.23. pitcher risk below avg (-0.23). Air: FB 50%, pull-air 25%. · zone 19.3 · zone HR 24.1%
- Max Muncy HRWorst Pickz Hidden Gem. 2 HR, 3 near-HR, 97.0 mph EV, 25.0% barrels. Mahle LHB split +0.29, HR risk -0.59. pitcher suppresses HR (-0.59). Air: FB 50%, pull-air 50%. · zone 17.0 · zone HR 11.5%
2 Leg Homerun Bet
- Garrett Mitchell HR0 HR, 94.7 mph EV. Buehler LHB split +0.87, HR risk 0.61. park/weather net drag (-5%); limited recent HR events. Air: FB 12%. · zone 29.6 · zone HR 19.6%
- Austin Wells HRWorst Pickz Hidden Gem. 0 HR, 99.4 mph EV, 12.5% barrels. Martinez LHB split +0.20, HR risk -0.18. pitcher risk below avg (-0.18); limited recent HR events. Air: FB 12%, pull-air 50%. · zone 19.3 · zone HR 23.6%
Hits Parlay
- Fernando Tatis Jr., Ben Rice, Andy Pages, Jackson Chourio, Ty France, Cody Bellinger
- Teoscar Hernandez, Drake Baldwin, William Contreras, Junior Caminero, Ronald Acuna Jr.
Worst Pickz Favorite 3 Leg
- Drake Baldwin HR ⭐1 HR, 3 near-HR, 94.0 mph EV, 25.0% barrels. Glasnow LHB split +0.88, HR risk -0.23. pitcher risk below avg (-0.23). Air: FB 62%, pull-air 25%. · zone 28.7 · zone HR 25.8%
- Fernando Tatis Jr. HR ⭐2 HR, 2 near-HR, 94.0 mph EV, 25.0% barrels. Gasser RHB split +0.31, HR risk 0.35 (risk carried from 9/7). park/weather net drag (-5%). Air: FB 25%, pull-air 12%.
- Manny Machado HR ⭐1 HR, 2 near-HR, 100.6 mph EV, 25.0% barrels. Gasser RHB split +0.31, HR risk 0.35 (risk carried from 9/7). park/weather net drag (-5%). Air: FB 25%, pull-air 38%.
Top 5 Pitchers To Attack
- Walker BuehlerHR risk 0.61; vs LHB +0.87, vs RHB +0.27.
- Robert GasserHR risk 0.35; vs LHB -0.21, vs RHB +0.31.
- Davis MartinHR risk 0.13; vs LHB -0.13, vs RHB +0.22.
- Nick MartinezHR risk -0.18; vs LHB +0.20, vs RHB -0.26.
- Tyler GlasnowHR risk -0.23; vs LHB +0.88, vs RHB -0.67.
Top 5 HR Tickets (Split + Risk + Park + Form + Zone)
Ben Rice TB @ NYY vs Martinez • risk -0.18 • split +0.20 • park 9%92
Drake Baldwin LAD @ ATL vs Glasnow • risk -0.23 • split +0.88 • park 3%90
Ozzie Albies LAD @ ATL vs Glasnow • risk -0.23 • split +0.88 • park 3%74
Cody Bellinger TB @ NYY vs Martinez • risk -0.18 • split +0.20 • park 9%71
William Contreras MIL @ SD vs Buehler • risk +0.61 • split +0.27 • park -5%79
Top 5 Weather Games
TB @ NYY Yankee Stadium (stadium +6%, weather +3%)+9%
LAD @ ATL Truist Park (stadium -2%, weather +5%)+3%
CLE @ CHW Rate Field (stadium -4%, weather 0%)-4%
MIL @ SD Petco Park (stadium -3%, weather -2%)-5%
Top 0 Weather Heavy HR Plays (every qualifier is already a Top 5 HR Ticket)
Best longshot HR (listed +700+)
Ozzie Albies Listed +800 - Over 0.5 HR vs Glasnow74
Garrett Mitchell Listed +940 - Over 0.5 HR vs Buehler82
Harsh Environment Fades
MIL @ SD Petco Park-5%
CLE @ CHW Rate Field-4%
Legend
Legend key & reading guide
💎 Underrated / I like
⚾ Pitcher Hand Weakness / HR Target
⭐ Worst Pickz Favorite (sheet-designated; rose border)
💎 Worst Pickz Hidden Gemz (sheet-designated; blue border)
🚀 100+ mph EV / loud EV profile
💣 Strong blast profile
🌕 Moonshot - Elite HR Targetability
🏟️ Good Park / weather support
🩹 Sharp Spot
📜 BvP History
🕊️ Pitcher HR-risk advantage
🧤 Bum onna Mound / HR-leaky SP in game title
💤 Overdue
L5 power trending up
L5 power cooling off
Neutral recent power (no badge shown)
High whiff / K% — swing-and-miss risk
Groundball-heavy profile (≥52% GB)
Low groundball rate (≤29% GB)
High hard-hit rate (≥50% HH)
Low hard-hit rate (≤30% HH)
HR Props That Cashed
Checking homers from MLB box scores…
Listed Batters Who Recorded a Hit
Checking hits from MLB box scores...