Worst Pickz Cheat Daily MLB Sheet
Worst Pickz Cheat Daily MLB Sheet
Thursday, August 13, 2026 — Worst Pickz HR cheat sheet with listed home run odds where available, confirmed/projected lineups, PropFinder batter data, pitcher weak spots, and Ballpark Pal rows via PropFinder Weather. This board covers 59 listed HR props across 9 games, with 9 Worst Pickz Favorite rows (⭐) and 10 Worst Pickz Hidden Gemz (💎). Designated Worst Pickz Favorites get the rose border; designated Hidden Gemz get the blue border and 💎 in the emoji row; the top-right Save box adds props to your local bet tracker.
Worst Picks HR Rating Model
Power Profile - 30 ptsBarrels, pull-air, launch shape, and one-swing damage.
Batter vs Pitcher Hand Edge - 15 ptsPlatoon lane and pitch-mix fit versus opposing starter.
Pitcher HR Weakness + Fly-Ball Risk - 25 ptsHR/9 leakage, hard contact, and hittable zones.
Pitcher Weak Spots - 5 ptsOrder-slot weakness and split exposure.
Park + Weather - 10 ptsHR row, wind, temperature, and roof impact.
Recent Form + Price - 15 ptsCurrent quality and value versus listed odds.
Score Bands
90-100 Elite HR TargetHigh-end profile plus clean matchup lane.
80-89 Strong TargetLive HR setup with manageable drag.
70-79 PlayableUsable lane, mostly price-sensitive.
69 and Lower Thin / FadeMostly longshot-only exposure.
Worst Pickz Straights of the Day
Over 0.5 HR Straight
Teoscar Hernandez — vs Drohan
- Primary edgefavorable split +0.49 vs Drohan, park/weather +12%, elite zone fit 37.2, zone HR rate 23.2%
- Why this pick2 HR, 3 near-HR · 91.4 mph EV · split +0.49 · risk +0.12 · park +12% · zone 37.2 · best O0.5 straight lane (zone fit + form + split + park)
Over 1.5 HR Straight
Owen Caissie — vs Ashcraft
- Primary edgefavorable split +0.45 vs Ashcraft, LHB park -5%, elite zone fit 41.4, zone HR rate 22.1%
- Why this pick2 HR, 2 near-HR · 93.5 mph EV · split +0.45 · risk +0.46 · LHB park -5% · zone 41.4 · 2 HR / 2 near-HR multi-HR profile
Goblin's Insight
3 Leg Homerun Bet
- Wilyer Abreu HR2 HR, 2 near-HR, 92.5 mph EV. Scherzer LHB split +1.54, HR risk 1.73. Air: FB 50%, pull-air 30%. · zone 24.4 · zone HR 15.8%
- Nathaniel Lowe HRWorst Pickz Hidden Gem. 1 HR, 2 near-HR, 94.1 mph EV. Montero LHB split +0.28, HR risk 0.06. park suppresses carry (-9%). Air: FB 40%, pull-air 10%. · zone 30.8 · zone HR 27.4%
- Mookie Betts HR1 HR, 2 near-HR, 93.8 mph EV. Drohan RHB split +0.49, HR risk 0.12. weather carry headwind (-6%). Air: FB 30%, pull-air 30%. · zone 22.7 · zone HR 10.1%
2 Leg Homerun Bet
- Jarren Duran HRWorst Pickz Hidden Gem. 1 HR, 1 near-HR, 97.5 mph EV. Scherzer LHB split +1.54, HR risk 1.73. Air: FB 20%, pull-air 10%. · zone 19.0 · zone HR 16.5%
- William Contreras HRWorst Pickz Hidden Gem. 1 HR, 2 near-HR, 93.5 mph EV. Sasaki RHB split +0.91, HR risk 0.19. weather carry headwind (-6%). Air: FB 40%, pull-air 10%. · zone 20.7
Hits Parlay
- Owen Caissie, Brady House, Nathaniel Lowe, Teoscar Hernandez, Royce Lewis, Abimelec Ortiz
- Jackson Chourio, Rhys Hoskins, Wilyer Abreu, Griffin Conine, Ben Rice
Worst Pickz Favorite 3 Leg
- Jackson Chourio HR ⭐2 HR, 3 near-HR, 99.3 mph EV. Sasaki RHB split +0.91, HR risk 0.19. weather carry headwind (-6%). Air: FB 60%. · zone 27.5 · zone HR 19.2%
- Griffin Conine HR ⭐3 HR, 4 near-HR, 102.2 mph EV. Ashcraft LHB split +0.45, HR risk 0.46. park/weather net drag (-13%). Air: FB 40%, pull-air 20%. · zone 27.9 · zone HR 27.5%
- Kody Clemens HR ⭐1 HR, 1 near-HR, 94.2 mph EV. Nola LHB split +1.05, HR risk 1.23. Air: FB 60%, pull-air 30%. · zone 18.1 · zone HR 22.8%
Top 5 Pitchers To Attack
- Max ScherzerHR risk 1.73; vs LHB +1.54, vs RHB +1.59.
- Aaron NolaHR risk 1.23; vs LHB +1.05, vs RHB +0.87.
- Braxton AshcraftHR risk 0.46; vs LHB +0.45, vs RHB +0.27.
- Logan GilbertHR risk 0.46; vs LHB +0.20, vs RHB +0.58.
- Cade CavalliHR risk 0.46; vs LHB +0.33, vs RHB +0.43.
Top 5 HR Tickets (Split + Risk + Park + Form + Zone)
Teoscar Hernandez MIL @ LAD vs Drohan • risk +0.12 • split +0.49 • park 10%82
Wilyer Abreu BOS @ TOR vs Scherzer • risk +1.73 • split +1.54 • park 8%95
Jackson Chourio MIL @ LAD vs Sasaki • risk +0.19 • split +0.91 • park 10%90
Jarren Duran BOS @ TOR vs Scherzer • risk +1.73 • split +1.54 • park 8%93
Bryce Harper PHI @ MIN vs Bradley • risk -0.16 • split +0.35 • park 0%67
Top 5 Weather Games
SEA @ NYY Yankee Stadium (stadium +6%, weather +16%)+22%
MIL @ LAD Dodger Stadium (stadium +19%, weather -6%)+12%
BOS @ TOR Rogers Centre (stadium +7%, weather +3%)+10%
CHC @ WAS Nationals Park (stadium +4%, weather +1%)+5%
CIN @ CHW Rate Field (stadium -6%, weather +5%)-2%
Top 5 Weather Heavy HR Plays
#1 Trent Grisham vs Gilbert · net +22% · split +0.2071
#2 Heliot Ramos vs Gilbert · net +22% · split +0.5867
#3 Ernie Clement vs Tolle · net +10% · split +0.3168
#4 William Contreras vs Sasaki · net +12% · split +0.9175
#5 Mookie Betts vs Drohan · net +12% · split +0.4972
Best longshot HR (listed +700+)
Ernie Clement Listed +870 - Over 0.5 HR vs Tolle68
Miguel Amaya Listed +890 - Over 0.5 HR vs Cavalli77
Bryson Stott Listed +725 - Over 0.5 HR vs Bradley59
Angel Genao Listed +800 - Over 0.5 HR vs Montero63
Harsh Environment Fades
PIT @ MIA LoanDepot Park-13%
Field of Dreams-10%
TEX @ LAA Angel Stadium-7%
CLE @ DET Comerica Park-3%
Legend
Legend key & reading guide
💎 Underrated / I like
⚾ Pitcher Hand Weakness / HR Target
⭐ Worst Pickz Favorite (sheet-designated; rose border)
💎 Worst Pickz Hidden Gemz (sheet-designated; blue border)
🚀 100+ mph EV / loud EV profile
💣 Strong blast profile
🌕 Moonshot - Elite HR Targetability
🏟️ Good Park / weather support
🩹 Sharp Spot
📜 BvP History
🕊️ Pitcher HR-risk advantage
🧤 Bum onna Mound / HR-leaky SP in game title
💤 Overdue
L5 power trending up
L5 power cooling off
Neutral recent power (no badge shown)
High whiff / K% — swing-and-miss risk
Groundball-heavy profile (≥52% GB)
Low groundball rate (≤29% GB)
High hard-hit rate (≥50% HH)
Low hard-hit rate (≤30% HH)
HR Props That Cashed
Checking homers from MLB box scores…
Listed Batters Who Recorded a Hit
Checking hits from MLB box scores...