Worst Pickz Cheat Daily MLB Sheet
Worst Pickz Cheat Daily MLB Sheet
Wednesday, September 30, 2026 — Worst Pickz HR cheat sheet with listed home run odds where available, confirmed/projected lineups, PropFinder batter data, pitcher weak spots, and Ballpark Pal rows via PropFinder Weather. This board covers 31 listed HR props across 4 games, with 3 Worst Pickz Favorite rows (⭐) and 7 Worst Pickz Hidden Gemz (💎). Designated Worst Pickz Favorites get the rose border; designated Hidden Gemz get the blue border and 💎 in the emoji row; the top-right Save box adds props to your local bet tracker.
Worst Picks HR Rating Model
Power Profile - 30 ptsBarrels, pull-air, launch shape, and one-swing damage.
Batter vs Pitcher Hand Edge - 10 ptsPlatoon lane and pitch-mix fit versus opposing starter.
Pitcher HR Weakness + Fly-Ball Risk - 20 ptsHR/9 leakage, hard contact, and hittable zones.
Pitcher Weak Spots - 5 ptsOrder-slot weakness and split exposure.
Park + Weather - 10 ptsHR row, wind, temperature, and roof impact.
Recent Form + Price - 15 ptsCurrent quality and value versus listed odds.
Score Bands
90-100 Elite HR TargetHigh-end profile plus clean matchup lane.
80-89 Strong TargetLive HR setup with manageable drag.
70-79 PlayableUsable lane, mostly price-sensitive.
69 and Lower Thin / FadeMostly longshot-only exposure.
Worst Pickz Straights of the Day
Over 0.5 HR Straight
Xander Bogaerts — vs Gausman
- Primary edgestrong platoon split +1.71 vs Gausman, attackable HR risk +1.47, RHB park +10%, zone fit 26.1
- Why this pick1 HR, 1 near-HR · 97.9 mph EV · split +1.71 · risk +1.47 · RHB park +10% · zone 26.1 · best O0.5 straight lane (zone fit + form + split + park)
Over 1.5 HR Straight
Lucas Spence — vs Burke
- Primary edgefavorable split +0.70 vs Burke, LHB park +10%
- Why this pick4 HR, 4 near-HR · 86.9 mph EV · split +0.70 · risk +0.23 · LHB park +10% · zone 12.9 · 4 HR / 4 near-HR multi-HR profile
Goblin's Insight
3 Leg Homerun Bet
- Taylor Trammell HR1 HR, 2 near-HR, 94.8 mph EV, 25.0% barrels. Burke LHB split +0.70, HR risk 0.23. Air: FB 50%, pull-air 38%. · zone 41.7 · zone HR 18.9%
- Bryce Harper HR1 HR, 1 near-HR, 86.8 mph EV, 12.5% barrels. Mahle LHB split +0.78, HR risk -0.12. pitcher risk below avg (-0.12); park/weather net drag (-10%). Air: FB 38%, pull-air 12%. · zone 20.8 · zone HR 19.7%
- Alex Bregman HRWorst Pickz Hidden Gem. 1 HR, 1 near-HR, 95.6 mph EV, 25.0% barrels. Pivetta RHB split +0.45, HR risk 0.28. Air: FB 50%, pull-air 25%. · zone 8.7
2 Leg Homerun Bet
- Ben Rice HRWorst Pickz Hidden Gem. 2 HR, 3 near-HR, 92.2 mph EV, 37.5% barrels. Gray LHB split -0.14, HR risk -0.38. slight split headwind (-0.14); pitcher risk below avg (-0.38). Air: FB 38%, pull-air 38%. · zone 31.8 · zone HR 19.3%
- Munetaka Murakami HR1 HR, 1 near-HR, 97.5 mph EV, 37.5% barrels. Brown LHB split -0.12, HR risk -0.71. slight split headwind (-0.12); pitcher suppresses HR (-0.71). Air: FB 38%, pull-air 25%. · zone 32.0 · zone HR 20.3%
Hits Parlay
- Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Sam Antonacci, Ben Rice
- Xander Bogaerts, Bryson Stott, Bryce Harper, Willson Contreras, Michael Busch
Worst Pickz Favorite 2 Leg
- Fernando Tatis Jr. HR ⭐2 HR, 2 near-HR, 94.3 mph EV, 37.5% barrels. Gausman RHB split +1.71, HR risk 1.47. Air: FB 38%. · zone 25.2 · zone HR 13.2%
- Yordan Alvarez HR ⭐1 HR, 1 near-HR, 100.5 mph EV, 12.5% barrels. Burke LHB split +0.70, HR risk 0.23. Air: FB 12%, pull-air 25%. · zone 24.1
Giancarlo Stanton ⭐ is not in tonight’s lineup, so this card runs 2 legs.
Top 5 Pitchers To Attack
- Kevin GausmanHR risk 1.47; vs LHB +0.60, vs RHB +1.71.
- Nick PivettaHR risk 0.28; vs LHB +0.06, vs RHB +0.45.
- Cristopher SanchezHR risk 0.24; vs LHB -1.13, vs RHB +0.35.
- Sean BurkeHR risk 0.23; vs LHB +0.70, vs RHB -0.04.
- Tyler MahleHR risk -0.12; vs LHB +0.78, vs RHB -0.92.
Top 5 HR Tickets (Split + Risk + Park + Form + Zone)
Taylor Trammell CWS @ HOU vs Burke • risk +0.23 • split +0.70 • park 10%86
Fernando Tatis Jr. CHC @ SD vs Gausman • risk +1.47 • split +1.71 • park 10%98
Xander Bogaerts CHC @ SD vs Gausman • risk +1.47 • split +1.71 • park 10%91
Christian Walker CWS @ HOU vs Burke • risk +0.23 • split -0.04 • park 7%89
Bryce Harper PHI @ ATL vs Mahle • risk -0.12 • split +0.78 • park -6%69
Top 5 Weather Games
BOS @ NYY Yankee Stadium (stadium +4%, weather +5%)+10%
CHW @ HOU Daikin Park (stadium +8%, weather 0%)+7%
CHC @ SD Petco Park (stadium -5%, weather +2%)-3%
PHI @ ATL Truist Park (stadium -3%, weather -7%)-10%
Top 3 Weather Heavy HR Plays (parks support no more today)
#1 Yordan Alvarez vs Burke · net +7% · LHB +10% · split +0.7088
#2 Lucas Spence vs Burke · net +7% · LHB +10% · split +0.7090
#3 Alex Bregman vs Pivetta · net -3% · RHB +10% · split +0.4575
Best longshot HR (listed +700+)
Taylor Trammell Listed +860 - Over 0.5 HR vs Burke86
Xander Bogaerts Listed +800 - Over 0.5 HR vs Gausman91
Lucas Spence Listed +880 - Over 0.5 HR vs Burke90
Bryson Stott Listed +900 - Over 0.5 HR vs Mahle57
Harsh Environment Fades
PHI @ ATL Truist Park-10%
CHC @ SD Petco Park-3%
Legend
Legend key & reading guide
💎 Underrated / I like
⚾ Pitcher Hand Weakness / HR Target
⭐ Worst Pickz Favorite (sheet-designated; rose border)
💎 Worst Pickz Hidden Gemz (sheet-designated; blue border)
🚀 100+ mph EV / loud EV profile
💣 Strong blast profile
🌕 Moonshot - Elite HR Targetability
🏟️ Good Park / weather support
🩹 Sharp Spot
📜 BvP History
🕊️ Pitcher HR-risk advantage
🧤 Bum onna Mound / HR-leaky SP in game title
💤 Overdue
L5 power trending up
L5 power cooling off
Neutral recent power (no badge shown)
High whiff / K% — swing-and-miss risk
Groundball-heavy profile (≥52% GB)
Low groundball rate (≤29% GB)
High hard-hit rate (≥50% HH)
Low hard-hit rate (≤30% HH)
HR Props That Cashed
Checking homers from MLB box scores…
Listed Batters Who Recorded a Hit
Checking hits from MLB box scores...