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Worst Pickz Cheat Daily MLB Sheet

Worst Pickz Cheat Daily MLB Sheet

Sunday, June 28, 2026 — Worst Pickz HR cheat sheet with listed home run odds where available, confirmed/projected lineups, PropFinder batter data, pitcher weak spots, and Ballpark Pal rows via PropFinder Weather. This board covers 14 listed HR props across 3 games, with 6 Worst Pickz Favorite rows (⭐) and 0 Worst Pickz Hidden Gemz (💎). Designated Worst Pickz Favorites get the rose border; designated Hidden Gemz get the blue border and 💎 in the emoji row; the top-right Save box adds props to your local bet tracker.

Worst Picks HR Rating Model

Power Profile - 30 ptsBarrels, pull-air, launch shape, and one-swing damage.
Batter vs Pitcher Hand Edge - 15 ptsPlatoon lane and pitch-mix fit versus opposing starter.
Pitcher HR Weakness + Fly-Ball Risk - 25 ptsHR/9 leakage, hard contact, and hittable zones.
Pitcher Weak Spots - 5 ptsOrder-slot weakness and split exposure.
Park + Weather - 10 ptsHR row, wind, temperature, and roof impact.
Recent Form + Price - 15 ptsCurrent quality and value versus listed odds.

Score Bands

90-100 Elite HR TargetHigh-end profile plus clean matchup lane.
80-89 Strong TargetLive HR setup with manageable drag.
70-79 PlayableUsable lane, mostly price-sensitive.
69 and Lower Thin / FadeMostly longshot-only exposure.

Worst Pickz Straights of the Day

Over 0.5 HR Straight
Gavin Sheets — vs Sheehan Listed +503 - Over 0.5 HR · Score 70 · LAD @ SD
  • Primary edgefavorable split +0.32 vs Sheehan, zone HR rate 20.5%
  • Why this pick1 HR, 1 near-HR · 87.8 mph EV · split +0.32 · risk +0.45 · park -1% · zone 20.3 · best O0.5 straight lane (zone fit + form + split + park)
Over 1.5 HR Straight
Ben Rice — vs Gray Listed +350 - Over 0.5 HR · Score 98 · NYY @ BOS
  • Primary edgeLHB park -7%, elite zone fit 29.6, zone HR rate 26.8%
  • Why this pick3 HR, 6 near-HR · 98.0 mph EV · split -0.21 · risk -0.38 · LHB park -7% · zone 29.6 · 3 HR / 6 near-HR multi-HR profile

Goblin's Insight

3 Leg Homerun Bet

  1. Shohei Ohtani HR2 HR, 2 near-HR, 99.7 mph EV. King LHB split -0.15, HR risk -0.11. slight split headwind (-0.15); pitcher risk below avg (-0.11). Air: FB 21%, pull-air 36%. · zone 29.2 · zone HR 17.4%
  2. Willson Contreras HR1 HR, 2 near-HR, 88.8 mph EV. Rodon RHB split -0.54, HR risk -0.53. tough split lane (-0.54); pitcher suppresses HR (-0.53). Air: FB 18%, pull-air 18%. · zone 28.4 · zone HR 19.0%
  3. Andruw Monasterio HR1 HR, 1 near-HR, 88.5 mph EV. Rodon RHB split -0.54, HR risk -0.53. tough split lane (-0.54); pitcher suppresses HR (-0.53). Air: FB 50%, pull-air 17%. · zone 27.5 · zone HR 23.4%

2 Leg Homerun Bet

  1. Spencer Jones HR1 HR, 97.4 mph EV. Gray LHB split -0.21, HR risk -0.38. slight split headwind (-0.21); pitcher risk below avg (-0.38). Air: FB 60%. · zone 23.4
  2. Rafael Devers HR1 HR, 3 near-HR, 96.3 mph EV. Sale LHB split -1.06, HR risk -1.18. tough split lane (-1.06); pitcher suppresses HR (-1.18). Air: FB 44%, pull-air 11%. · zone 21.3

Hits Parlay

  • Mookie Betts, Gavin Sheets

Worst Pickz Favorite 3 Leg

  1. Mookie Betts HR ⭐3 HR, 3 near-HR, 91.0 mph EV. King RHB split +0.00, HR risk -0.11. pitcher risk below avg (-0.11). Air: FB 40%, pull-air 20%. · zone 9.1
  2. Max Muncy HR ⭐0 HR, 1 near-HR, 89.9 mph EV. King LHB split -0.15, HR risk -0.11. slight split headwind (-0.15); pitcher risk below avg (-0.11). Air: FB 60%, pull-air 30%. · zone 25.2 · zone HR 18.0%
  3. Fernando Tatis Jr. HR ⭐0 HR, 1 near-HR, 100.7 mph EV. Sheehan RHB split +0.58, HR risk 0.45. limited recent HR events. Air: FB 36%, pull-air 14%. · zone 20.2

Top 5 Pitchers To Attack

  1. Emmet SheehanHR risk 0.45; vs LHB +0.32, vs RHB +0.58.
  2. Michael KingHR risk -0.11; vs LHB -0.15, vs RHB +0.00.
  3. Robbie RayHR risk -0.25; vs LHB -0.32, vs RHB -0.20.
  4. Sonny GrayHR risk -0.38; vs LHB -0.21, vs RHB -0.64.
  5. Carlos RodonHR risk -0.53; vs LHB -0.10, vs RHB -0.54.

Top 5 HR Tickets (Split + Risk + Park + Form + Zone)

Ben Rice NYY @ BOS vs Gray • risk -0.38 • split -0.21 • park -7%98
Shohei Ohtani LAD @ SD vs King • risk -0.11 • split -0.15 • park 0%90
Willson Contreras NYY @ BOS vs Rodon • risk -0.53 • split -0.54 • park 1%73
Fernando Tatis Jr. LAD @ SD vs Sheehan • risk +0.45 • split +0.58 • park 13%78
Rafael Devers ATL @ SF vs Sale • risk -1.18 • split -1.06 • park -11%82

Top 5 Weather Games

TEX @ TOR Rogers Centre (stadium +6%, weather +9%)+16%
CHC @ MIL American Family Fld (stadium +9%, weather -1%)+9%
MIA @ STL Busch Stadium (stadium -10%, weather +18%)+8%
WAS @ BAL Oriole Park (stadium -1%, weather +7%)+6%
PHI @ NYM Citi Field (stadium -2%, weather +8%)+6%

Top 5 Weather Heavy HR Plays

Best longshot HR (listed +700+)

Harsh Environment Fades

CIN @ PIT PNC Park-13%
ATL @ SF Oracle Park-6%
HOU @ DET Comerica Park-4%
ARI @ TB Tropicana Field-3%

Legend

Legend key & reading guide
💎 Underrated / I like
⚾ Pitcher Hand Weakness / HR Target
⭐ Worst Pickz Favorite (sheet-designated; rose border)
💎 Worst Pickz Hidden Gemz (sheet-designated; blue border)
🚀 100+ mph EV / loud EV profile
💣 Strong blast profile
🌕 Moonshot - Elite HR Targetability
🏟️ Good Park / weather support
🩹 Sharp Spot
📜 BvP History
🕊️ Pitcher HR-risk advantage
🧤 Bum onna Mound / HR-leaky SP in game title
💤 Overdue
L5 power trending up
L5 power cooling off
Neutral recent power (no badge shown)
High whiff / K% — swing-and-miss risk
Groundball-heavy profile (≥52% GB)
Low groundball rate (≤29% GB)
High hard-hit rate (≥50% HH)
Low hard-hit rate (≤30% HH)

HR Props That Cashed

Checking homers from MLB box scores…

    Listed Batters Who Recorded a Hit

    Checking hits from MLB box scores...